Hurricane Beryl Heads Towards Cancun as Category 5

Data as of July 2, 5:02 p.m. ET

The cone represents the probable path of the storm's center. Each edge indicates the widest likelihood of the storm's path. The wider the cone, the less confidence forecasters have in its trajectory. Areas outside the cone can still experience severe weather.

Source: National Hurricane Center

Hurricane Beryl has already claimed at least six lives in the Caribbean. It weakened slightly Tuesday as it heads toward Cancun. It is still a major Category 4 with life-threatening winds and storm surge.

The storm, possibly hitting or passing near Cancun on Thursday, had been a Category 5 with sustained winds of 165 mph. This made it the strongest July hurricane ever recorded, surpassing Emily from 2015, according to the National Hurricane Center. Tropical Storm Beryl officially became Hurricane Beryl on June 29, 2024. It strengthened since forming late Friday night and reached sustained winds of 75 mph, with higher gusts.

Hurricane Beryl is expected to bring “life-threatening winds and storm surge” to the Windward Islands, southeast of Puerto Rico and north of Venezuela. The storm continues moving west, the National Hurricane Center reported. Winds could be 30% stronger across higher elevations of the islands, forecasters noted.

A hurricane warning was issued for Barbados, and several other Caribbean islands are under a hurricane watch, including St. Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, and Grenada. Martinique, Dominica, and Tobago are under a tropical storm watch.

What is a Hurricane Warning

A hurricane warning means that hurricane conditions are expected in the specified area within 36 hours. People should complete all storm preparations, including evacuations if directed by local officials. A hurricane watch indicates that hurricane conditions are possible within 48 hours. Residents should prepare to act.

Forecasters predict Beryl could hit Cancun Friday morning, with damaging winds likely to reach at 2 a.m. local time.

According to National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration records, only three storms have reached Category 3 status in the north Atlantic Ocean this early in the season: Alma in 1966, Audrey in 1957, and an unnamed storm in 1916. All made landfall on the U.S. coastline in the Gulf of Mexico: Alma near St. Marks, Florida; Audrey near Port Arthur, Texas; and the 1916 storm near Mobile, Alabama.

The system became Tropical Storm Beryl late last Friday when its sustained winds reached 39 mph. At 74 mph, a storm becomes a hurricane.

A named storm this far east in the Atlantic is unusual for June, John Cangialosi, a forecaster with the National Hurricane Center, wrote in an advisory Friday.

“There have only been a few storms in history that have formed over the central or eastern tropical Atlantic this early in the year,” he wrote.

Key things to know about the storm

- The storm is expected to cross the central Caribbean Sea through the middle of this week.

- Between 3 to 6 inches of rain, hurricane-force winds, and dangerous storm surge are possible in the eastern Caribbean Islands.

- There is a fair amount of uncertainty in the forecast about the track the storm will take, especially beyond three days.

Atlantic Hurricane Season

Forecasters have warned that the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season could be much more active than usual. In late May, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted 17 to 25 named storms this year, an “above-normal” number. This is in line with more than a dozen forecasts earlier in the year from experts at universities, private companies, and government agencies. Hurricane seasons produce 14 named storms on average.

The seasonal hurricane outlooks were notably aggressive because forecasters saw a combination of circumstances that didn’t exist in records dating back to the mid-1800s: record warm water temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean and the potential formation of the weather pattern known as La Nina. La Nina occurs in the Pacific because of changing ocean temperatures and affects weather patterns globally. When strong, it typically provides a calm environment in the Atlantic. This allows storms to develop more easily and strengthen without interference from wind patterns that might otherwise keep them from organizing.

Beryl is the first hurricane classified as Category 4 or higher to appear in June. This makes it the earliest Category 4 storm of the Atlantic hurricane season. It is also the strongest hurricane to pass through the Windward Islands, which include Grenada, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, Saint Lucia, and Martinique.